Kaum Zuwächse im Weihnachtsgeschäft zu erwarten. Kräftige Konsumsteigerung im 1. Halbjahr 1996 (Small Losses in Christmas Business Expected. Strong Increase in Consumer Expenditures in the First Half of 1996)
Der private Konsum übte seine stabilisierende Wirkung auf die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Österreich auch 1996 aus. Bei gedämpfter
Einkommensentwicklung – nicht zuletzt als Folge des "Sparpakets" – suchten die privaten Haushalte ihre Konsumpläne weitgehend
zu verwirklichen. Die Sparquote ging zurück. Vor dem Inkrafttreten des "Sparpakets" etwa mit Jahresmitte waren – ähnlich wie
nach der Ankündigung fiskalischer Belastungen in der Vergangenheit – umfangreiche Vorziehkäufe zu beobachten; diese Nachfrage
fehlt in der zweiten Jahreshälfte. Für das Weihnachtsgeschäft des Einzelhandels zeichnen sich heuer keine Zuwächse ab.
Keywords:Kaum Zuwächse im Weihnachtsgeschäft zu erwarten. Kräftige Konsumsteigerung im 1. Halbjahr 1996; Small Losses in Christmas
Business Expected. Strong Increase in Consumer Expenditures in the First Half of 1996
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Small Losses in Christmas Business Expected. Strong Increase in Consumer Expenditures in the First Half of 1996
Private consumption has continued to exert a stabilizing effect on the Austrian economy in 1996. With income declining, mainly
as a result of the "austerity package", the saving rate decreased, as private households attempted to maintain their accustomed
consumption pattern. Before the "austerity package" came into effect at around the middle of the year, consumers engaged in
massive pre-emptive purchases, a phenomenon often observed in the past when fiscal levies were announced. These purchases
showed up as a slump in sales in the second half of the year. No gains can be expected in retail Christmas sales. The extent
of the pre-emptive purchases and the ensuing buying restraint is clearly reflected in the sales performance of retail trade
(adjusted for price increases, during the period from January to May sales expanded by 4.8 percent over the same period in
1995, but declined 0.7 percent on average during June to August). The break in the development of consumer spending is even
more pronounced in retail sales of consumer durables (January to May +11.7 percent, June to August –2.3 percent; car retail
sales +19.0 percent, –10.2 percent). This is due to the fact that purchases of durable goods can be moved rather easily. The
volume of pre-emptive purchases was about as high as before the introduction of the "luxury" value-added tax (1978) and the
increase in the value-added tax (1984). Retail trade recorded a significant increase in productivity during the first half
of 1996. This phenomenon is due to the intensification of competition and rationalization pressures as result of EU membership
and to the concentration of purchases in the first half of 1996. In wholesale trade, however, the strong productivity gains
recorded in 1995 were not repeated. In the first half of 1996, employment dropped in retail as well as in wholesale trade.
Prices were lower than one year earlier (retail –0.3 percent, wholesale –1.6 percent). Given the development of retail sales
since the first measures of the austerity package became effective, the outlook for the Christmas business, which is very
important in some retail branches, is not very optimistic. In the past, the excess of sales in the fourth quarter above those
in the first to third quarter, has served as an indicator for the volume of Christmas sales. This value reached ATS 16 billion
on a net basis (net of the value-added tax) in 1995. But in 1996 this indicator may be unduly influenced by special effects
(austerity package); the estimate of Christmas sales in 1996 is therefore based on a time series analysis of retail sales.
This method points to a decrease in Christmas sales (adjusted for price increases) of about 1 percent. Business might turn
out worse than forecast, if people take more trips given the favorable constellation of holidays, better, if shops take better
advantage of the opportunities that already exist at the present time to keep their shops open longer hours and thus induce
consumers to buy on an impulse.