Die Meldungen von 3.000 Unternehmen aus Industrie, Bauwirtschaft, Elektrizitätswirtschaft und Versorgungssektor im jüngsten
WIFO-Investitionstest lassen erwarten, daß die Investitionen zu einer Verlängerung des Konjunkturzyklus beitragen. Nachdem
der Aufschwung zunächst von der Lageraufstockung und den Exporten getragen war, könnte die Dynamik der Nachfrage nun auf die
Investitionen übergehen. Die von der Befragung erfaßten Bereiche werden nach einem Rückgang um 7% im Jahr 1994 ihre Investitionen
heuer insgesamt nominell um 14% steigern (real +12%). Dabei werden die Industrie, die Elektrizitätswirtschaft und die Infrastrukturbereiche
1995 mehr aufwenden als im Vorjahr.
Keywords:Investitionen werden Aufschwung verlängern. Ergebnisse des WIFO-Investitionstests vom Frühjahr 1995; Investment Set to Prolong
the Upswing
Forschungsbereich:Industrie-, Innovations- und internationale Ökonomie – Regionalökonomie und räumliche Analyse
Sprache:Deutsch
Investment Set to Prolong the Upswing
In late spring, WIFO sampled 3,000 enterprises in manufacturing, construction and public utilities for their investment plans
for 1995. Interest in the results was heightened by the fact that some domestic and foreign business cycle indicators had
recently pointed to a slower pace of recovery. The results of the survey suggest that investment spending in the areas sampled
will increase by 14 percent in 1995, following a decline of 7 percent in 1994. In real terms, this would correspond to an
expansion of about 12 percent. According to these figures, investment should give firm support to keeping the recovery on
track, while in its early stages it was mainly driven by exports and stockbuilding. The profile of overall investment is mainly
determined by manufacturing industry. Industrial investment shrank 7 percent in 1994 and may rise by about 11½ percent this
year, corresponding to a fall by 8½ percent followed by a 9½ percent rise in volume terms. While investment is still low when
compared with the level of the early nineties and also as a ratio of overall sales, the turnaround is important from a cyclical
perspective. Firms are also optimistic as regards prospective sales. The latter may total sch 923 billion in 1995, implying
a further rise by 5½ percent. Real output growth is expected at 4½ percent. Sales are set to increase most strongly in the
basic goods and chemical industry following poor results over the last few years. The weakest sales increase is projected
for the traditional consumer goods sector: while in the food and beverages industry the effects of EU membership are mainly
responsible for the weak performance, it is the competition from central and eastern Europe in the case of the apparel industry.
Planned investment activity is closely in line with sales performance and expectations, being buoyant for basic goods and
technical manufactures, but weak for the food and the textile industry. The latest survey results for the construction industry
suggest a cutback of gross capital spending by 5 percent at current prices in 1995, following a 3½ percent decline in 1994.
This mirrors the slackening demand for new structures. The electricity companies envisage capital spending totalling sch 17.4
billion in 1995, a plus of 28 percent year-on-year. For the last two years, original investment plans had subsequently been
revised downwards substantially; this time, such a correction seems less likely given that most of the projects reported are
well in progress. The strong trend rise in municipal infrastructure investment prevailing since the early eighties was interrupted
in 1993 and 1994 by spending cuts for the Vienna underground construction works. For 1995, a resumption of growth is in sight.
Additional expenditure will be concentrated on the supply of drinking water and district heating.