High Frequency Business Cycle Analysis of September 2020

The current economic situation of the Austrian economy has further improved in September 2020. Based on high-frequency data, the weekly WIFO Economic Index (WWWI) shows a gap of 2.9 percent in calendar week 39 compared to the same period last year. On a monthly average, the recovery was once again weaker than in previous months. Based on the WWWI, the estimate for full-year GDP growth is around –7 percent. This is also confirmed by the results of the cluster of dynamic factor models (CDFM), which are presented here for the expenditure-side aggregates of the National Accounts. The selection of indicators for the CDFM is based, among other things, on the findings of a correlation analysis, which is also described. The situation on the labour market continued to ease in September, and the employment level stabilised in some economic sectors.