WIFO-Monatsberichte (monthly reports)

The WIFO-Monatsberichte (monthly reports) contain research results and publications by WIFO staff on national and international economic developments based on sound economic analyses. Additionally, important key figures on the international and Austrian economic situation are published in the WIFO-Monatsberichte.

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Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Vienna University of Economics and Business)
Claudia Kemfert (German Institute for Economic Research)
Philipp Schmidt-Dengler (University of Vienna)
Jens Südekum (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf)
Andrea Weber (Central European University)

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Klaus S. Friesenbichler, Christian Glocker, Werner Hölzl (WIFO), Philipp Wegmüller (SECO)
Ein neues Modell für die kurzfristige Prognose der Herstellung von Waren und der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen (A New Model for Short-term Forecasting of Manufacturing and Equipment Investments)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2018, 91(9), pp.651-661
Online since: 25.09.2018 0:00
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Seit Juni 2018 unterstützt ein dynamisches Faktormodell die WIFO-Prognose der Wertschöpfung der Sachgüterproduktion (Herstellung von Waren) und der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen. Wie eine Überprüfung seiner Prognoseeigenschaften zeigt, hat es einen hohen Vorlauf und kann daher einen wichtigen Input zur Expertenprognose leisten.
JEL-Codes:C32, C53, E37
Keywords:Dynamisches Faktormodell, Prognose und Nowcasting, Echtzeitdaten KP_Prognose_Modelle
Research group:Macroeconomics and Public Finance – Industrial, Innovation and International Economics
Language:German
A New Model for Short-term Forecasting of Manufacturing and Equipment Investments
In June 2018, a dynamic factor model was introduced to support the WIFO forecast of value added in the manufacturing sector and of investments in machinery and equipment. As a review of its forecasting characteristics shows, it has a high time lead and can therefore provide important input for expert forecasting.
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