High Frequency Business Cycle Analysis until Mid-November 2020

The current assessment of the WWWI points to an increasing weakening of the economic recovery: on a monthly average the indicator fell slightly in October (–3.5 percent). For the year 2020, taking into account the restrictions imposed by the government (second lockdown from 3 November 2020, tightened on 17 November), the estimate that builds on the WWWI shows a decline in GDP of 8 percent. Based on the model results from the cluster of dynamic factor models (CDFM), a decline of similar magnitude is calculated for the year 2020. In addition to the production and demand side components of National Accounts, the model also includes a real-time assessment of the income side.