Findings on the Financial Sustainability of the Luxembourg Pension System

The study examines the assumptions used by the Luxembourg Ministry of Social Affairs to calculate the financial sustainability of the general pension system in Luxembourg until 2070. The seven central assumptions underlying the long-term simulations are checked for plausibility based on empirical findings. The assumptions on commuting and immigration flows are shown to be weakly substantiated. The assumption of per capita productivity growth of 1.2 percent in the projection period up to 2070 also appears optimistic. Furthermore, possible areas of conflict between the assumptions made in the simulation and the ecological goals set out in the National Energy and Climate Plan are highlighted.