The WIFO Flash Estimate: Revision Analysis and Brief Description of the Method

This article examines the extent of revisions in the WIFO Flash Estimate of GDP and its sub-aggregates for the period from the third quarter of 2020 to the second quarter of 2025. In addition, it briefly outlines the current methodology, which has been in use since the modification in 2020, whereby the WIFO Flash Estimate is calculated independently of Statistics Austria's Quarterly Accounts. The revision analysis is based on WIFO's real-time data set, which reflects the vintage of the WIFO Flash Estimate and the Quarterly National Accounts at the time of publication. Based on standard revision measures, it is shown that the WIFO Flash Estimate of GDP is an unbiased first estimate for the subsequent publication of the Quarterly National Accounts by Statistics Austria. During the COVID-19 crisis, the volatility of economic activity led to an increase in both the range of GDP publications and the extent of revisions in the WIFO Flash Estimate.