Effects of (Non)Action: the Potential Costs of Age-related Retirement of Skilled Workers

The study examines the potential challenges arising from the significant departure of workers aged 55 and over within the next 5 to 10 years. It also considers the increased demand for certain occupations, particularly in the context of digitalisation, ecological transition and the need for replacements in system-critical economic sectors. It also considers the associated qualification requirements. Two scenarios have been prepared to model the future development of the labour supply. The first scenario addresses the anticipated shortage of qualified workers due to the retirements of older employees. The second scenario focuses on upskilling individuals of working age who have at most a compulsory school diploma. Using a production function approach, the study estimates how changes in the volume of work may affect the wider economy. The findings will be incorporated into the action options.