Political and Demographic Factors of Long-Term Care Needs and Public Costs in an Ageing Society

We build a pseudonymised research dataset based on the Austrian long-term care information data. Based on this novel data source, we conduct statistical analyses on the demand for long-term care and its dynamics, the care provided by families, and the impact of the individual family context on the care service mix and care dynamics. Finally, we develop policy-relevant simulation analyses of future care demand, supply and costs. The results of the statistical analysis will feed into an existing dynamic microsimulation model, which will be extended to include long-term care issues and scenarios. We project future care needs, the evolution of family care potential, the demand for different forms of care (care mix) and the resulting costs to public funds. We contribute to research on long-term care by combining rich administrative data with dynamic modelling approaches.