31.01.2025

Cautious Improvement in Situation Assessments at the Beginning of the Year

Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of January 2025
The results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) show a cautious improvement in business assessments of the economy in January, although they remain at a low level. At –5.2 points (seasonally adjusted), the WIFO economic climate index in January was 0.8 points above the previous month's value (–6.0 points). This economic picture continues to be determined by the weak industrial economy, although economic sentiment in the construction industry also deteriorated at the start of the year. Overall economic situation assessments improved but remained below average. Overall economic expectations did not change compared to the previous month and remained mostly sceptical.

The index of current situation assessments for the overall economy rose by 1.8 points in January, but remained below the zero line at –4.3 points. In the manufacturing sector, which is particularly important for the economy, the situation index rose (+5.3 points), but at –22.1 points was still well below the zero line that separates positive from negative situation assessments. In the construction industry, the situation index fell (–1.3 points) and was again lower in negative territory at –5.5 points. In the services sector, on the other hand, the situation index rose slightly (+0.8 points) and was somewhat higher in positive territory at 4.3 points. The situation index also rose in the retail sector (+1.1 points) and was above the zero line at 3.9 points.

The index of business expectations for the overall economy remained unchanged in January and, at –6.4 points, was below the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index increased (+3.7 points), but remained in the range of sceptical economic expectations at –10.4 points. In the services sector, the expectations index lost 1.9 points and was back slightly below the zero line at –0.7 points. There was a more significant deterioration in the construction industry (–4.6 points). At –1.8 points, the expectations index was again below the zero line. Employment expectations in particular deteriorated. In the manufacturing sector, the expectations index rose in January (+3.8 points), but at –16.3 points remained in the range of sceptical economic expectations: production and business situation expectations began to recover, but remained mostly sceptical.

WIFO-Konjunkturtest
30.01.2025
Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of January 2025
Finalization: January 2025
Contractor project: European Commission
Specialist publication: WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Dr. Werner Hölzl
Industrial, Innovation and International Economics