
The Quality of Economic Forecasts in Times of Extraordinary Crises
"Measured by the average absolute forecast error in relation to Austrian economic growth in the years 2021 to 2024, WIFO performed best. The error was roughly equivalent to the average of the forecasts for Germany. However, the forecasts of international institutes for the euro area were better", said WIFO economist Marcus Scheiblecker.
The unpredictable onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant downward revisions of economic forecasts for 2020 worldwide. During the pandemic, the health policy measures announced at short notice hampered forecasting activities. The following recovery was interrupted by Russia's invasion of the Ukraine, which led to sharp price increases in the EU and the implementation of economic sanctions. At the turn of 2022-23, Austria entered its longest recession since the foundation of the Second Republic. During this period, signs of improvement appeared several times, which turned out to be short-lived.
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