Improvement in Retail Sentiment at the Start of the Year, Christmas Sales Were Positive

The domestic economy continued to develop moderately. According to the WIFO Flash Estimate, economic output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 0.2 percent in volume terms compared with the previous quarter (seasonally and calendar adjusted). Consumer demand from private households contributed positively to growth. However, monthly developments (according to WWWI) showed a decline in November (compared with the previous year).

According to the flash estimate by Statistics Austria, inflation fell significantly to 2.0 percent in January 2026 (December 2025: 3.8 percent). The decline in energy prices (elimination of the base effect of the electricity price cap, reduction in energy tax and renewable energy subsidy) had a dampening effect.

According to preliminary data, turnover in domestic retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) showed moderate growth in December 2025 after adjustment for calendar effects (+1.9 percent in value terms, –0.2 percent in volume terms compared with the previous year, preliminary figures). As forecast, Christmas-related additional turnover in December is likely to exceed the level of 2024.

Turnover in the retail sector (excluding motor vehicles and petrol stations) amounted to 79.5 billion € in 2025, or +2.9 percent compared to 2024 (+0.7 percent in volume terms).

The confidence among Austrian retailers improved significantly at the turn of the year. This is particularly evident in expectations for the coming months, which are more optimistic than they have been for a long time. But optimism has also increased in the current assessment of the situation.

The Austrian consumer climate indicator declined slightly at the start of the year and is now below the 2025 average. Other aspects of the survey, such as the assessment of expected sales prices and the assessment of job security, show positive changes.

Moderate consumer momentum is expected for 2026, while consumer demand is likely to rise by around 1 percent in 2027, accompanied by a decline in the savings rate.

On the labour market, the number of unfilled vacancies fell again in January, both in the economy as a whole and in the retail sector (about –10 percent in each case), although the decline slowed slightly. In January, 8,404 vacancies in the retail sector (including motor vehicles, according to ÖNACE 2025) could not be filled in the short term, while the figure for the economy as a whole was 68,463.

The number of new corporate insolvencies levelled off at a high level. In the fourth quarter of 2025, a total of 1,023 insolvencies were opened, 6.4 percent fewer than in the previous year. The situation also eased in the retail sector, with a 13.7 percent decline compared to the previous year recorded in the fourth quarter.