Economic Outlook Remains Mostly Pessimistic

The index of current assessments of the overall economy lost 0.6 points in September and remained in negative territory at –8.2 points. In the manufacturing sector, which is particularly sensitive to economic developments, the situation index lost 2.2 points and at –19.5 points was well below the zero line separating positive from negative assessments. In the construction industry, the situation index fell by 1.6 points and, at –1.3 points, was in negative territory for the first time since June 2020. In the services sector, however, the index gained slightly (+0.8 points), but remained negative at –2.5 points, as in the previous month. In the retail trade sector, the situation index continued to decline (–2.0 points) and was also in negative territory at –8.0 points.

The index of business expectations for the economy as a whole gained 1.2 points in September, but at –8.6 points it remained noticeably below the zero line separating negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail trade sector, the expectations index lost 2.0 points compared to the previous month and stood at –25.7 points, deep in pessimistic territory. In the service sectors, the expectations index rose by 2.8 points and was only just in negative territory at –0.9 points. In the construction industry, too, the expectations index rose slightly (+1.5 points) and was just in positive territory at 1.0 points, although business situation expectations remained clearly negative. In manufacturing, the expectations index deteriorated slightly in September (–0.3 points). At –18.6 points, the index was well below the zero line and continues to signal sceptical economic expectations.