Economic Forecasts Remain Strained Despite Improvement

The index of current situation assessments for the total economy rose by 2.1 points in September, but remained in negative territory at –7.4 points. In the manufacturing sector, which is particularly important for the economy, the situation index rose slightly (+0.4 points), but at –22.0 points was still noticeably below the zero line that separates positive from negative situation assessments. In the construction industry, the situation index rose somewhat more significantly (+2.0 points), but remained in the sceptical range at –3.3 points. The situation index also rose in the services sector (+2.6 points), but remained in negative territory at –1.6 points. In the retail sector, the situation index improved (+3.8 points) and was only just below the zero line at –0.6 points.

The index of business expectations for the total economy improved by 0.9 points in September, but at –5.0 points was still below the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index rose (+2.4 points), but at –16.7 points remained noticeably in the area of sceptical economic expectations. In the services sector, the expectations index rose by 1.3 points and was back above the zero line at 2.5 points. There was also a further slight improvement in expectations in the construction industry (+0.8 points). However, at –2.2 points, the index remained below the zero line. In manufacturing, on the other hand, the expectations index deteriorated slightly in September (–0.5 points). At –16.3 points, the index remained in the area of sceptical economic expectations.