28.11.2024

Economic Forecasts Improve at Low Level

Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of November 2024

The results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) show an improvement in business assessments of the economy in November, although they remain at a low level. At –4.3 points (seasonally adjusted), the WIFO Business Climate Index was 2.3 points higher in November than in the previous month (–6.6 points). Overall economic situation assessments and economic expectations are improving, but remain largely sceptical. The economic picture continues to be dominated by the weak industrial sector. Corporate demand for credit remained virtually unchanged in the aggregate compared to the previous quarter. The majority of companies continue to assess the banks' willingness to grant loans as restrictive.

The index of current situation assessments for the overall economy rose by 2.3 points in November and remained in negative territory at –6.5 points. In the manufacturing sector, which is particularly important for the economy, the situation index fell slightly (–1.7 points) and, at –22.7 points, remained well below the zero line that separates positive from negative situation assessments. In the construction industry, the situation index remained almost unchanged (–0.2 points) and, at –1.8 points, was still just in the sceptical range. In the services sector, on the other hand, the situation index rose significantly (+5.8 points) and was just in positive territory at 0.5 points. In the retail sector, the situation index lost 0.3 points and remained just below the zero line at –1.2 points.

The index of business expectations for the overall economy rose in November (+2.9 points), but at –2.6 points was still below the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index gained ground again (+7.8 points), but at –14.4 points remained in the area of sceptical economic expectations. In the services sector, the expectations index gained 2.7 points and, at 3.2 points, was once again more clearly above the zero line. There was a further slight improvement in the construction industry (+6.3 points). At 5.6 points, the expectations index was noticeably above the zero line. The expectations index in the manufacturing sector also improved in November (+1.7 points), although at –11.0 points, the index remained in the area of sceptical economic expectations.