Economic Expectations Slow Down

The index of current situation assessments fell by 1.2 points in May, but remained noticeably in positive territory at 26.2 points. This decline is pronounced in the construction industry, where the situation index fell by 6.8 points, but at 38.8 points continues to signal good construction activity. In manufacturing, the situation index lost 3.7 points compared to the previous month, but at 23.2 points continues to indicate good business activity in manufacturing. In the service sector, the index remained almost unchanged from the previous month at 31.1 points and thus continues to signal economic confidence. In retailing, on the other hand, the situation index improved (+7.1 points) and is now only just in negative territory at –0.2 points.

On the other hand, the index of business expectations showed a clear decline. Although it lost 9.4 points in May compared to the previous month, at 12.3 points it was still noticeably above the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail trade sector, the expectations index lost 5.8 points and was again clearly in negative territory at –8.9 points. The expectations index also lost ground in the service sectors (–10.9 points), but still remained noticeably positive at 14.3 points. In the construction industry the expectations index also suffered losses (–8.1 points) but remained positive at 38.2 points. However, business expectations for inventories in the construction industry have clouded over more clearly recently. In manufacturing, too, the expectations index deteriorated (–9.0 points). At 7.7 points, it was still above the zero line, but at a much lower level than in the past twelve months. Uncertainty about the future development of the business situation increased further as a result of the Ukraine war and supply bottlenecks.