Cautious Economic Sentiment at the Start of the Year

The index of current assessments of the overall economy fell by 0.8 points to –1.1 points in January, remaining just below the zero line that separates positive from negative assessments. In manufacturing, the situation index fell slightly (–1.1 points) and, at –10.0 points, was once again slightly lower in the sceptical range. In the construction industry, the situation index rose slightly (+0.4 points) but remained just below zero at –1.7 points. In the service sectors, the situation index lost some momentum (–1.6 points) but remained in positive territory at 3.7 points. In the retail sector, the situation index improved (+2.0 points), returning to above zero at 2.0 points.

The index of business expectations for the total economy also declined in January (–1.2 points) and, at –0.1 points, was back at zero, the line separating negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index rose (+6.4 points), but at –7.4 points it remained in the sceptical economic expectations range, albeit at an above-average level for the retail sector. In the service sectors, on the other hand, the expectations index fell (–1.4 points), but at 3.2 points it remained in the confident range. The construction industry saw a deterioration (–2.4 points), with the expectations index falling back below zero to –1.0 points. In manufacturing, too, the expectations index declined at the beginning of the year (–1.2 points) and remained in the sceptical range at –2.2 points.