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WIFO Bulletin

WIFO Bulletin

The WIFO Bulletin is published online and focuses on

  • International and Austrian economic outlooks,
  • Recent economic developments,
  • Studies on European integration.

We offer subscriptions and single downloads. Subscription form

You may find all articles of the Bulletin's predecessor here:  Austrian Economic Quarterly

Recent issues(86 hits)

Stefan Ederer, Little Evidence for Weakening Business Activity. Business Cycle Report of March 2018

WIFO Bulletin, 2018, 23(3), pp.20-26
   
Economic growth is currently robust, both internationally and in Austria, and should sustain its momentum in the months to come. Austria's labour market keeps recovering, even if unemployment stays high. Inflation has somewhat eased lately, narrowing the differential vis-à-vis the euro area.
 
Online since: 28.03.2018 0:00

Stefan Ederer, Buoyant Economic Activity in First Half of the Year. Business Cycle Report of February 2018

WIFO Bulletin, 2018, 23(2), pp.13-19
   
Economic activity is currently buoyant globally as well as in Austria and is expected to maintain its momentum also in the first few months of 2018. The Austrian labour market continues to recover, although unemployment remains high. The inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area average persists.
 
Online since: 06.03.2018 0:00

Stefan Ederer, Strong Growth Prospects for Austria's Economy. Economic Outlook for 2017 to 2019

WIFO Bulletin, 2018, 23(1), pp.1-12
   
Austria's manufacturing sector is benefitting from buoyant international business activity. The high degree of productive capacity utilisation provides major stimulus for domestic investment. Private consumption also lends continued support to output growth, even if it does not give a strong additional momentum at the advanced stage of the cyclical upswing, as income growth remains moderate.
 
Online since: 02.02.2018 0:00

Stefan Ederer, Vigorous Economic Activity in Winter 2017-18. Business Cycle Report of December 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(18), pp.182-189
   
Both the global and the Austrian economy are growing vigorously at present. Sentiment indicators suggest that this momentum will continue also in the first few months of the coming year. This benefits the Austrian labour market, although the unemployment rate remains high. Inflation in Austria exceeds the euro area average.
 
Online since: 02.02.2018 0:00

Marcus Scheiblecker, Global Economy in Best Shape. Business Cycle Report of November 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(17), pp.173-181
   
The Austrian economy continues its upswing. Sentiment indicators have reached record highs in the euro area and the EU as a whole. The US economy once again grew vigorously in the third quarter. In these economic regions, stock exchange prices continue their sharp upward trajectory. Emerging market economies participate in this currently robust global economic activity and report a further improvement in their economic performance.
 
Online since: 18.12.2017 0:00

Josef Baumgartner, Serguei Kaniovski, Hans Pitlik, Stefan Schiman, Significantly Improved Growth Prospects. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2022

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(16), pp.155-172
   
Following the financial and economic crisis (GDP –3.8 percent in 2009) and the sluggish development in 2012-2015 (+0.7 percent p.a.), economic activity picked up significantly from mid-2016 onwards. For the years 2017 and 2018, the current forecast foresees an annual real GDP growth of 2¾ percent. In the medium term, an average growth of real GDP of 2 percent per year is expected (2013-2017 +1.2 percent p.a.), which is about ¼ percentage point higher than the average of the Euro area. The robust growth for the world economy has a stimulating effect on exports (+3.7 percent p.a.), which in turn has a positive effect on equipment investments. Private consumption is expected to increase by 1½ percent p.a. over the forecast period due to an increase in disposable income (2013-2017 +0.7 percent p.a.). The economic expansion combined with labour market policies ("Employment Bonus" and "Initiative 20,000"), will have a stronger positive effect on employment surpassing the dynamics of labour supply, resulting in a drop in unemployment. From 2020 onwards, labour supply is expected to again increase more strongly than labour demand, and as a result the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 8.0 percent in 2019 to 8.4 percent by the end of the forecast period. Inflationary pressure will remain moderate in the medium term, and the inflation differential to the Euro area average is expected to further decrease. The consumer price inflation will average of 1.9 percent p.a. On the basis of the projected business cycle and the assumed economic policy framework the overall government budget is expected to be balanced (both structurally and as defined according to Maastricht) from the middle of the forecast period onwards. As a result, the government debt ratio (total public debt as a percentage of nominal GDP) is projected to decline by around 17 percentage points to nearly 64 percent between 2017 and 2022.
 
Online since: 18.12.2017 0:00

Werner Hölzl, Thomas Leoni, International Unit Labour Cost Position in Manufacturing Deteriorated in 2016

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(15), pp.143-154
   
According to recent data, the Austrian economy experienced a deterioration in its international unit labour cost position for goods manufacturing in 2016, compared to the weighted average of its global trading partners, as well as in comparison to the EU trading partners and to Germany. This was mostly due to a higher rise in labour costs in Austria. In the long term, the Austrian unit labour cost position was comparatively stable, with a negative trend since 2013.
 
Online since: 18.12.2017 0:00

Marcus Scheiblecker, Strongest Economic Growth in Six Years. Economic Outlook for 2017 and 2018

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(12), pp.111-122
   
After an acceleration of economic activity in the first half of 2017, latest business surveys do not suggest a further strengthening for Austria. GDP is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2017, the highest rate in six years. Despite the appreciation of the euro and a slowing growth momentum in third countries, the euro area should keep a firm upward trend in 2018, driven by the expansionary monetary policy of the ECB and a still untightened fiscal stance. The Austrian economy may grow in 2018 at the same rate as in 2017. From a cyclical perspective, further extension of the current expansionary fiscal policy would not be appropriate.
 
Online since: 02.11.2017 0:00

Marcus Scheiblecker, Highest Employment Growth in Austria Since 2008. Business Cycle Report of September 2017

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(11), pp.104-110
   
The very strong employment momentum strengthened further in the summer. At the same time the economic indicators remained at very high levels, but did not improve any more; the growth rate appears to have reached its maximum. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, at 8.5 percent continues to be quite high, in view of this excellent state of the economy.
 
Online since: 19.10.2017 0:00

Thomas Url, Private Insurance Premium Income Declined in 2016

WIFO Bulletin, 2017, 22(14), pp.133-142
   
The volume of single premium payments (with long-run guarantees) almost halved in 2016. Positive effects of the tax reform were more than compensated by low interest rates, making private households increasingly shy away from contracts with long commitment periods. On the supply side, insurers were less willing to underwrite long-run guarantees. This caused premiums in the life insurance business to decline by 9 percent and the total premium intake to shrink by 1.8 percent. Robustly growing private health insurance (+4.7 percent) and a recovery in non-life and accident insurance (+1.7 percent) did not prevent a further drop of the insurance density to 4.9 percent of GDP. Forecasts for 2017 and 2018 expect that this development will continue, albeit at a slower pace. The first year of experience with Solvency II revealed some scope for interpretation across the member countries' supervisory bodies. Austrian insurers emerged from the stress test in 2016 with sufficient amounts of solvency capital.
 
Online since: 08.11.2017 0:00

Contact persons

Michael Böheim

Michael Böheim

Function: Research staff member, Editor WIFO-Monatsberichte and WIFO Bulletin
Research groups: Industrial Economics, Innovation and International Competition

Ilse Schulz

Ilse Schulz

Function: Scientific administration staff member
Activities: Publications, Website, Subscriptions

Tamara Fellinger

Tamara Fellinger

Function: Administrative staff member
Activities: Publications, Website, Subscriptions

Tatjana Weber

Tatjana Weber

Function: Administrative staff member
Activities: Publications, Website, Subscriptions
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