Business Cycle in Major Countries Out of Phase

Fluctuations of business activity in the world economy are currently not synchronized. While in the U. S. an upswing is under way, activity is losing momentum in Europe and Japan. Forecasts of GDP growth in 1993 have to be revised downwards to 2 percent for the whole OECD area and to 1¼ percent for OECD Europe. The outlook for Germany has markedly deteriorated. Outside the U. S. a cyclical recovery may only be expected toward the end of 1993. It should gradually accelerate in 1994 to an annual average of 3 percent and 2½ percent, respectively. Inflation remains low, but unemployment will rise.