Interest Rates as Leading Business Cycle Indicators
The spread between long-term and short-term interest rates is an excellent leading indicator of business-cycle fluctuations in Austria and Germany. A negative spread signals a slowdown in future growth; a positive spread indicates improved growth prospects. This finding may serve to substantially improve the quality of macroeconomic forecasts.
Empfohlene Zitation
Jaeger, A. (1992). Zinssätze als vorauseilende Indikatoren der Konjunkturentwicklung. WIFO-Monatsberichte, 65(5), 286-290. https://www.wifo.ac.at/publication/pid/3977115.