Update of the Medium-term Forecast of the Austrian Economy 2020 to 2024
In the coming years weaker growth is expected for Austria's most important trading partners (2020-2024 +1½ percent p.a., 2015-2019 +2¼ percent p.a.). This will weigh on domestic exports (+2.6 percent, +3.9 percent) and investment activity (+1.5 percent, +3.5 percent). The relief for private household incomes through the family bonus (the part that will become effective in 2020) and the measures adopted in autumn 2019 to support low-income earners should support consumer demand, especially from 2020 to 2022. An average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent for private consumption is projected over the forecast period (2015-2019 +1.2 percent p.a.). Fuelled by private consumption, the Austrian economy is expected to grow by 1¼ percent per year (2015-2019 +1.9 percent p.a.). Based on this scenario, employment will probably increase by 1.0 percent p.a. (2015-2019 +1.7 percent p.a.) and the unemployment rate from 7.4 percent in 2020 percent to 7.6 percent in 2024. Prices (according to the CPI) are projected to rise moderately in the medium term (+1.6 percent p.a.). Given the projected business cycle and the assumed fiscal measures, the fiscal balance of the public sector is expected to remain in surplus over the forecast period (0.4 percent of nominal GDP), implying a decline in the public debt ratio (general government debt as a percentage of nominal GDP) below 60 percent.