Retail Business Cycle Report

Once a quarter, the Retail Business Cycle Report compiles key economic information for the retail trade and trade as a whole. Ongoing economic monitoring and reporting is highly relevant to provide retailers and the interested public with up-to-date data and analyses. The current report shows that, with the war in Iran, sentiment indicators have deteriorated significantly among both retailers and consumers. Recent data on gross domestic product (flash estimate) and retail turnover, however, still show a slightly positive trend up to March 2026. On average for the first three months of 2026, retail turnover (excluding motor vehicles and fuel) rose by 1.6 percent in value terms (0.2 percent in volume terms) year-on-year, adjusted for calendar effects. According to preliminary calculations, real value added rose by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter (seasonally- and calendar-adjusted).