WIFO-Konjunkturtest of September 2019

Economic Assessments for the Manufacturing Industry Continue to Weaken
The results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) of September 2019 show a decline in economic assessments for the economy as a whole. However, there are still differences across the sectors.

While the positive economic assessments of companies in the service sectors and the construction industry are declining only slightly, the economic assessments in the manufacturing sector are clouding considerably after the slight recovery in the previous month.

The index of current assessments for the economy as a whole fell by 2.4 points in September (excluding seasonal fluctuations) to a value of 10.2 points, thus remaining at a confident level despite the decline. In the service industries, the index lost 1.0 points, but at 12.1 points continues to signal a quite good service economy. In the construction industry, the index also fell slightly (–1.0 points), but remains at an optimistic level with a value of 28.3 points. In the economically important manufacturing sector, the situation index is losing ground more markedly (–5.1 points) and at 1.9 points is now only just in the positive range.

The index of business expectations fell slightly in September (–1.4 points) to 7.3 points. In the construction industry, the expectation index is falling (–1.1 points), but the index value remains confident at 11.0 points. In the service sectors, the expectation index remained virtually unchanged compared to the previous month and, at 12.1 points, remained within the range of confident economic expectations. In the manufacturing sector, on the other hand, the expectation index fell more sharply (–3.7 points), entering negative range for the first time since August 2016 at –1.5 points.

Details on all sectors in the current economic survey can be found here.

Dr. Werner Hölzl
Industrial, Innovation and International Economics