Weak Industrial Economy Determines Economic Picture

The index of current assessments of the overall economy remained virtually unchanged in October (–0.1 points) and continued to be negative at –8.1 points. In the manufacturing sector, which is particularly sensitive to economic developments, the situation index lost 3.1 points and, at –22.6 points, remained well below the zero line separating positive from negative assessments. In the construction industry, however, the situation index rose slightly (+0.9 points) and was back at the zero line at –0.1 points. In the service sectors, the index gained slightly (+1.1 points), but remained in negative territory at –1.3 points, as in previous months. In the retail trade sector, the situation index also gained slightly (+1.5 points) but was also below the zero line at –6.5 points.

The index of business expectations for the economy as a whole gained 1.0 points in October, but at –7.6 points it was still below the zero line separating negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail trade sector, the expectations index gained 0.6 points compared with the previous month but remained deep in pessimistic territory at –25.1 points. In the service sectors, the expectations index rose by 1.5 points and stood at 0.7 points, just above the zero line. In the construction industry, the expectations index remained unchanged at 0.7 points at the zero line, although business situation expectations remained clearly negative. In manufacturing, the expectations index showed a slight improvement in October (+0.5 points). However, at –18.5 points, the index remained within the range of pessimistic economic expectations.