27.06.2025

Sideways Movement in Economic Assessments

Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of August 2025
The results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) in August show a continuation of the stabilisation of business assessments of the economy despite a slight decline. At –2.6 points (seasonally adjusted), the WIFO Business Climate Index was 0.2 points below the July value. Sentiment remained largely stable across all sectors. Slight declines in services and retail were offset by slight improvements in construction and manufacturing. However, economic activity in the intermediate and capital goods sectors remains weak. Corporate demand for credit remained virtually unchanged compared to the previous quarter, as did business assessments of banks' willingness to lend, which is still considered to be rather restrictive.

The index of current situation assessments for the total economy rose by 0.1 points in August, but remained just below the zero line at –2.8 points. In manufacturing, the situation index gained some momentum again (+4.5 points), but at –10.9 points was still well below the zero line that separates positive from negative situation assessments. In the construction industry, the situation index gained 0.3 points and is now in confident territory at 3.7 points. In the services sector, the situation index fell (–2.0 points) and was again just in negative territory at –0.6 points. The situation index also deteriorated in the retail sector (–3.0 points), although it was still just in positive territory at 0.8 points.

The index of business expectations for the total economy fell in August (–0.5 points) and, at –2.1 points, remained below the zero line that separates negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index rose slightly (+0.2 points) and, at –10.5 points, was in the area of sceptical economic expectations. In the services sector, the expectations index lost 0.9 points and was still just in positive territory at 0.4 points. There was an improvement in the construction industry (+1.9 points). At 3.6 points, the expectations index was more stable above the zero line. In the manufacturing sector, which is important for the economy, the expectations index fell slightly in August (–0.9 points) and remained in the sceptical economic expectations range at –5.5 points – albeit at the second-highest level since May 2023.

WIFO-Konjunkturtest
28.08.2025
Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of August 2025
Finalization: August 2025
Contractor project: European Commission, Framework Programme
Specialist publication: WIFO-Konjunkturtest
Dr. Werner Hölzl
Industrial, Innovation and International Economics
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