Economic Momentum Stabilises Again

Economic assessments in gastronomy and tourism also improved again after the quite significant declines in the previous month. The improvement in business expectations across all economic sectors suggests that economic momentum is likely to remain stable in the coming months despite the pandemic, shortage of skilled workers and supply bottlenecks.

The index of current assessments for the economy as a whole rose by 0.6 points in October (excluding seasonal fluctuations) and remained in positive territory at 20.9 points. In the retail sector, however, the index deteriorated quite significantly (–8.3 points) and the situation index was negative for the first time since June 2020 at –1.7 points. In the construction industry, too, the situation index deteriorated by 5.4 points, but remained at an above-average level of 31.8 points. In the service sectors, on the other hand, the index improved (+3.0 points) and at 21.7 points was well above the zero line that separates positive from negative economic assessments. The situation index in the manufacturing sector also gained momentum (+1.8 points) and, at 23.6 points, signalled good business activity in the manufacturing sector.

The index of business expectations gained 3.6 points in October and was again higher in the optimistic range at 17.9 points. This was mainly due to gains in the service sectors, where the index regained momentum (+7.0 points) and was again in confident territory at 18.4 points. In the construction industry, on the other hand, the expectations index fell by 2.5 points, but remained noticeably optimistic at 39.4 points. In the manufacturing sector, the expectations index remained almost unchanged (+0.3 points) and continued to be confident at 17.7 points. In retail trade the expectations index improved (+2.4 points). Although the index was negative at –5.7 points, it remained at an average level for the retail sector from a long-term perspective.