Preventive Options for Reorienting Austria's Economic Security Strategy

Global crises in recent years – including geopolitical conflicts, climate change, migration, pandemics, and technological upheavals – pose major strategic challenges for Austria as a small, open economy. Protectionism is not an option; rather, technological strengths must be expanded and economic dependencies reduced. In this context economic defence ensures supply and economic functionality and, as part of comprehensive national defence, strengthens resilience to conflicts, climate risks, cyberattacks, and supply chain disruptions. This requires cross-sector coordination and strategic planning. Using foresight methods, four key risk drivers were analysed: North Africa and migration, the Ukraine war, climate change, and cyber threats. This resulted in future scenarios and long-term visions up to 2040. A dependency index (WIFO-AI) developed by WIFO provides a differentiated view of trade networks and global interdependencies for 10 selected products and highlights how country risks influence economic vulnerabilities. The WIFO-AI was deliberately designed as an open system that can be adapted in terms of all essential parameters in order to develop targeted measures to strengthen the resilience of Austrian foreign trade. To reduce strategic dependencies, a dependency radar as an early warning instrument, coordinated governance, investments in technology and skills, and the strengthening of critical infrastructures are recommended in order to establish a sustainable economic security strategy.