Analysis of the Macroeconomic Effects of Different Scenarios on the Basis of Long-Term Gas Supply Contracts

The project analysed the macroeconomic effects of different scenarios based on Austria's long-term gas supply contracts with Russia. The macroeconomic effects of the individual scenarios were modeled using the WIFO model ADAGIO (A DynAmic Global Input Output Model) and include value added and employment effects at sectoral level as well as the effects on the development of gross domestic product. The conclusions focus on a comparison of the economic effects of the different scenarios for Austria. The most important conclusion from the study is that Austria's security of supply can best be guaranteed by a well-diversified procurement strategy that prevents dependence on individual suppliers from arising in the first place. In this way, any disruptions on the supplier side can be well absorbed by a resilient procurement system.