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Franz Sinabell (WIFO), Martin Schönhart, Erwin Schmid (INWE-BOKU)
Austrian Agriculture 2020-2050. Scenarios and Sensitivity Analyses on Land Use, Production, Livestock and Production Systems
Monographs, December 2018, 100 pages
Commissioned by: Federal Environment Agency Ltd
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Institute for Sustainable Economic Development
Online since: 20.12.2018 0:00
 
Agriculture contributes approximately 10 percent to the emission of greenhouse gases in Austria. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the long-term development of the sector in order to assess whether Austria is achieving its emission targets. In three scenarios, adaptation paths of Austrian agriculture to changed price developments and political framework conditions up to 2050 are examined. The reduction of arable land observed so far was continued in the scenarios. The results show sustained production incentives for milk production. Contrary to recent observations, the results indicate a reduction in poultry meat production. In arable farming, maize production will increase, mainly due to the assumed productivity gains.
JEL-Codes:Q11
Keywords:Agriculture, Forecasts, Austria
Research group:Environment, Agriculture and Energy
Language:English

Related issues

Completed research studies
Commissioned by: Federal Environment Agency Ltd
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Closed: 2018
Agriculture contributes approximately 10 percent to the emission of greenhouse gases in Austria. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the long-term development of the sector in order to assess whether Austria is achieving its emission targets. In a scenario "with existing measures" adaptation pathways of Austrian agriculture to market developments and political framework conditions up to 2050 are examined. The most recent price forecasts of OECD and FAO are used as an input for the description of market perspectives. A survey among agricultural experts in Austria is used to describe production conditions in detail. Proposals for the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, published by the European Commission in mid-2019, are used for the description of the policy environment. Climate change effects are not explicitly modelled but determined implicitly via production and market responses.

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