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Hermine Mitter, Anja Kristina Techen, Franz Sinabell, Katharina Helming, Kasper Kok, Jörg A. Priess, Erwin Schmid, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Ian Holman, Heikki Lehtonen, Adrian Leip, Chantal Le Mouël, Erik Mathijs, Bano Mehdi, Melania Michetti, Klaus Mittenzwei, Olivier Mora, Lillian Øygarden, Pytrik Reidsma, Rüdiger Schaldach, Martin Schönhart
A protocol to Develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European Agriculture
Journal of Environmental Management, 2019, (252), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109701
ISSN 0301-4797
Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalise the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.
JEL-Codes:Q10
Keywords:Eur-Agri-SSP; Consistent storylines; Narrative; Integrated assessment; Social environmental system; Climate change
Research group:Environment, Agriculture and Energy
Language:English