Older Persons in the Labour Market: A Forecast until 2040 as a Basis for Economic Policy Measures

The present study develops an estimate of future developments on the labour market for older persons. For this purpose, the influence of health status, education and other factors on employment careers is analysed and the employment situation of older people is forecasted until 2040 with the help of a dynamic microsimulation model. This approach, which is based on individual employment careers of a representative sample of the population, allows an estimation of future development trends in terms of size and structure of the Austrian labour force. The modelled transitions between the different employment statuses depend not only on age and gender but also on individual circumstances such as the state of health, the highest formal educational qualification, but also the previous employment career. Based on detailed analyses of the impact of these factors on the transition opportunities or risks between different employment positions, the model simulates future developments of the Austrian labour market, also taking into account regulatory changes in the pension system.