EU Contingent Financial Liabilities

Contingent liabilities for the EU budget have grown considerably in their magnitude and their complexity and will continue to increase under the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2021-2027. This paper tracks their evolution, explains the risks they might impose on the EU budget, and analyses the risk management practices to address them. We forecast total contingent liabilities will more than double by 2027, reaching 612 billion €. This will be driven mainly by Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) loans and, to a lesser extent, by financial support to Ukraine.