Long-term Forecast of Expenditures for Long-term Care

Expenditures for long-term care in Austria (2014: 8.3 billion €) are covered by the Federal state, the Länder, and private households. The future development of these expenditures will be jointly determined by demographic, health, social, and economic factors. While demographic, social and economic factors tend to increase spending on long-term care, improvements in health will dampen demand for care services. Spending on care allowance by the Federal state will increase by one fifth until 2030, nevertheless, in relation to economic activity, spending on care allowance will decline from 0.8 percent (2014) to 0.7 percent of gross domestic product by 2030. Net expenditures on in-kind benefits by the Länder will increase from 0.6 percent of GDP (2014) to 0.9 percent (2030). Because expenditures on care allowance lag behind economic growth – despite the higher number of cases – co-payments are expected to accelerate over the next years. Together with more restrictive access criteria for care allowance, potential reductions in care quality, or a limited expansion of in-kind benefits this creates additional demand for private care insurance.