Impact of New Technologies on Freight Transport. Phase 2: Development of a General Impact Model

International trade in goods is an important part of the demand for freight transport services. The effects of digitalisation on international trade in goods therefore have an impact on the volume of goods transported and also on the modal split. For this reason, this study performed a quantitative analysis of the possible effects of digitalisation on international trade in goods. The relationship between different digitalisation parameters and the intensity and structure of international trade relations was examined. Digitalisation reduces communication, coordination, monitoring and transaction costs, among other things, and this increases absolute trade volumes and thus the intensity of international trade. Digitalisation is thus contributing to an increase in the movement of goods. Digitalisation is also increasingly enabling companies to better serve different markets and customers and to optimise their own value chains for this purpose. It is also changing the geographical diversification of international goods traffic on both the export and import sides. On the one hand, digitalisation is contributing to an increase in freight traffic, but it is also changing the structure of source and destination traffic.