Weekly WIFO Economic Index

WWWI for GDP and its subcomponents

Based on the weekly indicator for GDP (WWWI), unadjusted domestic economic output rose by ¾ percent year-on-year in November (calendar weeks 45 to 48; October +1¾ percent, revised)¹.

The inflation-adjusted volume of cashless transactions, serving as an indicator of household consumption expenditure, showed an increase for services and a decline for goods (retail sales) in November compared with the previous year. Private consumption thus stagnated in November compared with the same period last year (October +2½ percent).

Gross fixed capital formation is driven by estimated economic output (industrial production) and by sentiment in manufacturing from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey). In November, investment is likely to have risen by ½ percent compared with the previous year (October +1½ percent).

Based on developments in industrial production and tourism, as well as major demand components and the resulting effects on foreign trade, net exports in the broad sense made a negative contribution of 3½ percentage points to GDP growth in November (October –2 percentage points).

Truck mileage on Austria's motorways and passenger numbers at Vienna Airport rose year-on-year in November, while air freight handled at Vienna Airport and rail freight volumes declined. According to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, companies in the transport sector have been taking a more negative view of the current business situation since August. Based on these indicators, value added in the transport sector (NACE 2008, section H) is expected to have decreased by ½ percent year-on-year in November (October +1½ percent).

Employment in the goods-producing sector (NACE 2008, sections A to E) continued to fall, albeit at a slower pace. The year-on-year rise in the number unemployed has also continued to decelerate. The WIFO-Konjunkturtest shows that the current assessments of the situation remain predominantly pessimistic, although they have improved significantly since the beginning of the year. WIFO expects value added in the goods-producing sector to have been ¼ percent higher in November than in the same period last year (October +1½ percent).

Sentiment among construction companies is slowly brightening – both their assessment of the current situation and their expectations have already turned positive. Nevertheless, the number of registered unemployed in construction rose again in November. Employment also continued to fall. Value added in construction (NACE 2008, section F) is estimated to have been 3 percent lower year-on-year in November (October –2½ percent).

Based on cashless transactions in restaurants and hotels and sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, value added in tourism (accommodation and food services, NACE 2008, section I) is likely to have remained unchanged in November compared with the previous year (October +¼ percent). In trade (NACE 2008, section G), (unadjusted) value added in November is expected to have declined by 1% compared with the previous year, with one less trading day (October +3 percent).

Based on the current employment situation and the sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, value added in the remaining market-related services (NACE 2008, sections J to N) is estimated to have increased by 1¼ percent year-on-year in November (October +1 percent). Value added in other personal services (NACE 2008, sections R to T), based on employment trends and business expectations from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, is estimated to have been 1 percent above the previous year's level in November (October 0 percent).

¹  The inclusion of newly published and revised monthly and quarterly data, which must be taken into account when estimating the WWWI, led to a revision of the WWWI for GDP. Notable supply-side WWWI revisions occurred particularly in the goods-producing sector (NACE 2008, sections A to E), the public administration in the broad sense (sections O to Q), trade (section G), and the remaining market-related services (sections J to N).

The WIFO Weekly Economic Index (WWWI) is a measure of the real economic activity of the Austrian economy on a weekly and monthly frequency. It is based on weekly, monthly and quarterly time series to estimate weekly and monthly indicators for real GDP and 18 GDP sub-aggregates (use side 8, production side 10) of the Quarterly National Accounts.

With the release for June 2022, the econometric models for the historical decompositions and for nowcasting have been converted to seasonally unadjusted time series. In addition, year-on-year growth rates are now used to estimate the models.

The WWWI estimates are (currently) updated monthly and published on the WIFO website.