Evaluation and Further Development of the Indicators for Austria's Shortage Occupation List

The Austrian list of shortage occupations forms the basis for the "Rot-Weiß-Rot Card" and the skilled worker scholarship, and is based primarily on a single indicator: the job vacancy rate for the respective year. The study shows that the number of shortage occupations therefore fluctuates with the economic cycle, from 45 in 2021 to 110 in 2024 and down to 64 in 2026, and that many occupations remain on the list for only one or two years. A persistence criterion, which links inclusion on and removal from the list to three consecutive years, stabilises the list of occupations facing labour shortages without requiring additional data or a new procedure. During an economic downturn, it keeps those occupations on the list whose shortage is only briefly interrupted, which is desirable for the promotion of skills development and suggests a greater differentiation of instruments for immigration policy. A relative job-to-applicant ratio supplements this criterion during prolonged downturns; its threshold value has yet to be determined. As additional structural indicators, the relative duration of vacancies, the rate of exit from employment and wage drift prove to be informative and show little correlation with one another; however, they are only available by sector. In a sample analysis for 2026, they confirm the persistence list and alter it by no more than three occupations. An annual recalculation is therefore not necessary, though an ad hoc review is required in borderline cases and for initial inclusions. Where training capacities are the cause of the shortage – as in several healthcare and higher education professions – inclusion on the list does nothing to address the root cause.