The Impact of Migration on the Austrian Labour Market and Economy. A Hybrid Microsimulation-ABM Approach (SIMPACT)

This project studies how migration-induced population heterogeneity affects labour market and macroeconomic outcomes in Austria. In a heterogeneous labour force, macroeconomic conditions do not affect all individuals uniformly, creating differential prospects and vulnerabilities. To comprehensively assess the economic impact of migration, we propose a novel, interdisciplinary, data-driven approach that integrates a dynamic microsimulation – projecting long-term effects of socio-demographic changes on labour force participation – with a macroeconomic agent-based model (ABM) simulating aggregate economic consequences of migration shocks. This integrated approach provides a deeper understanding of the interaction between individual life choices and macroeconomic dynamics. Using individual-level data from the Austrian Micro Data Center (AMDC), we will examine how place of origin, family characteristics, initial activity at immigration, and education shape migrants' employment trajectories. The project will explore different demographic and migration scenarios and policy responses, such as upskilling programs. These scenarios are anchored in Statistics Austria's new microsimulation-based population projections, which reflect the heterogeneity of migrants by origin and account for differential emigration risks by duration of residence. The project outcomes will provide policymakers with effective strategies to reduce skills mismatches and income inequality.