Forecasting Income Distribution Indicators. An Extension of the WIFO Medium-term Forecast

The project expands the WIFO medium-term forecast by adding two Beyond GDP indicators on income distribution among private households in Austria – the S80/S20 income quintile ratio and the at-risk-of-poverty rate – thereby strengthening the role of distributional policy targets in economic policy discussions. Using EU-SILC microdata and the EUROMOD microsimulation model, the project simulates available household incomes, taking into account macroeconomic, demographic, and institutional developments. This adapts the existing short-term forecasting infrastructure to the medium-term macroeconomic path.