ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2025: Der Strukturwandel hat Deutschland fest im Griff

The German economy is undergoing profound structural change, characterised by decarbonisation, digitalisation, demographic shifts and geopolitical upheavals. Compared to other countries, it is only slowly and at great expense managing to adapt through innovation and new business models. Germany is feeling the effects of structural change particularly acutely, as the manufacturing sector, which is predominantly affected, is of great total economy importance and demographic change is particularly pronounced. In addition, production processes in general and start-up processes in particular are structurally hampered in this country by bureaucratic and infrastructural hurdles. From a total economy perspective, the structural change is reflected both in a slowdown in the potential growth rate in the coming years and in a downward revision of the production potential for the past years. As a result, the scope for recovery has been significantly reduced. The economic policy decisions taken to date are likely to give the German economy only a short-term economic boost, but no impetus for higher production potential or an acceleration of potential growth. This would require measures to strengthen the labour supply through additional incentives to extend working hours or participation in the labour market, or to increase productivity through radical digitalisation and simplification of the state apparatus. Total, price-adjusted gross domestic product will grow by only 0.1 percent in the current year. In the next two years, growth will accelerate to 0.8 and 1.1 percent respectively. Compared with the ifo economic forecast from autumn 2025, growth rates have thus been lowered by 0.1 percentage points for the current year and by 0.5 percentage points for each of the next two years. A reassessment of production potential has contributed significantly to this revision.