European Trade Policy after the Rupture: Strategic Dependencies, the Second China Shock and the Future of the WTO

The international economic order is undergoing a structural rupture. Economic interdependence is increasingly weaponised, the binding force of multilateral trade rules is eroding and a second China shock is hitting Europe's industrial core in capital- and technology-intensive sectors. This article argues that the EU should not abandon openness but recalibrate its trade policy. Drawing on recent geoeconomic research, we propose criteria for identifying strategic dependencies and identify seven such dependencies for the EU. We assess trade policy responses to the second China shock and outline a pragmatic WTO reform agenda built on open plurilateralism, a rebalancing of most-favoured-nation treatment and reciprocity, and plurilateral resilience agreements against economic coercion. A deeper Single Market remains the EU's most important source of geoeconomic strength.