FIW Annual Report 2026

The year 2025 was characterised by Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies and the resulting uncertainty surrounding trade policy. With the outbreak of war between the USA and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other at the end of February 2026, the Middle East became the focal point of global economic developments. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz triggered an energy price shock which dampened the global economic recovery and placed a particular strain on energy-importing economies. Against this backdrop, Austrian exports of goods contracted by 0.5 percent in nominal terms and by 1.1 percent in real terms in 2025, whilst imports of goods rose by 4.8 percent in real terms. The trade balance in goods deteriorated by 8.8 billion € to a deficit of 6.6 billion €. The 7th FIW Annual Report examines the development of Austria's foreign trade against a backdrop of trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical conflicts. In addition to a review of the calendar year 2025, the report provides a short-term forecast for the years 2026 and 2027, which takes account of the uncertain trend in energy prices through two scenarios. In the main scenario, price-adjusted growth of 0.7 percent (2026) and 1.8 percent (2027) is expected for Austrian exports of goods; in the pessimistic scenario, export growth in 2026 falls to 0.3 percent. For the first time, the report also examines monetary foreign trade relations. In the medium-term outlook, the analysis focuses on the consequences of US trade policy, the Middle East conflict and the reorientation of EU trade and industrial policy.