Wachstum gewinnt durch Exportdynamik an Schwung – Binnenkonjunktur bleibt verhalten. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen
Wirtschaft bis 2015 (Growth is Gaining Momentum Owing to Exports, Domestic Demand Remains Sluggish. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy
until 2015)
Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird von 2011 bis 2015 real um durchschnittlich 2,2% pro Jahr expandieren. Die Arbeitslosenquote
(laut AMS-Definition) wird im Durchschnitt der Jahre 2011 bis 2015 6,8% betragen. Aufgrund des Anstiegs des in- und ausländischen
Arbeitskräfteangebotes wird sich die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt nicht weiter entspannen. Im Gefolge der Maßnahmen zur Konsolidierung
der öffentlichen Haushalte und der Konjunkturbelebung dürfte das Budgetdefizit bis 2015 unter 2% des BIP sinken. Die Inflationsrate
wird durch die Steuererhöhungen und den anhaltenden Rohstoffpreisauftrieb 2011 auf 2,1% steigen und über den gesamten Prognosezeitraum
bei 1,9% liegen.
Keywords:Prognose Österreich Wirtschaftswachstum Budgetdefizit Arbeitslosenquote
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen
Sprache:Deutsch
Growth is Gaining Momentum Owing to Exports, Domestic Demand Remains Sluggish. Medium-term Forecast for the Austrian Economy
until 2015
Led by a dynamic export growth real GDP in Austria grew by 2 percent in 2010. Between 2011 until 2015 the Austrian economy
is expected to grow by 2.2 percent. The annual growth rate of trend output will average at 1.7 percent in the forecast period,
¼ percentage point below the average of the 10 years before the crisis. The world economy has overcome the cyclical trough
sooner than anticipated and expanded by 4.5 percent in 2010. This growth rate is expected to persist during the period from
2011 to 2015. The revival of world trade will cause an increase of Austrian exports by an average of 6.2 percent per year.
As import growth is slightly lower at 5.8 percent, net exports will contribute to GDP growth. The pick-up in export activity
in 2010 failed to spur investment (–3.1 percent) sufficiently as capacity utilisation remained low at the beginning of the
year. Owing to the sustained and dynamic export growth, investment activity is expected to pick up in the forecast period
and gross fixed capital formation will expand by an average of 2.9 percent per year.
Real gross domestic product will expand by 2.2 percent per year during 2011-2015. The unemployment rate (according to the
Public Employment Service Austria, AMS) will amount to 6.8 percent on average during 2011-2015. Due to increasing foreign
and domestic labour supply labour market conditions will not ease further. Owing to measures to consolidate public finances
and improveing economic activity the budget deficit is expected to fall below 2 percent of GDP by 2015. The inflation rate
will rise to 2.1 percent in 2011 driven by tax increases and rising commodity prices. Over the forecast period consumer price
will increase on average by 1.9 percent per year.
