Themenplattform "Europäische Herausforderungen"

Within this framework contract with the European Commisssion DG TAXUD specific economic studies in the area of taxation will be commissioned. WIFO has the lead of a consortium which consists of CASE (Poland), Copenhagen Economics (Denmark/International), IEB (Spain), Ifo (Germany), PwC (Belgium/International) and VATT (Finland).

This project uses the rich historic experience of repeated large-scale and unexpected economic (dis-)integrations at the Austrian-Czech border to test the predictions of economic geography models of regional development. In particular we analyse the impact of these dis-integration events on regional development: First, in both Austria and the Czech Republic so that we focus on two countries which for a substantial part of the period analysed were characterised by rather different political regimes and huge differences in incomes and costs, that additionally changed over time; second, for a large set of (dis-)integration episodes that span a period of almost a century so that we compare different (dis-)integration events, that took place at different points in time at which the considered countries differed substantially in income levels and institutions; third, with respect to many potential adjustments (such as population and employment and unemployment growth as well as firm entry and exit) that will inform future research on the mechanisms through which the regional economic effects of integration operate.

This project provides the first economic assessment of economic consequences for the Austrian economy of the anticipated MERCOSUR free trade agreement based on the legislative draft of the agreement published in mid-2019. The focus of the analysis is on the quantitative impact on employment and value added of the Austrian economy and on consequences for non-trade concerns. Among the latter are implications for socio-economic aspects like labour rights and potential implications for the environment, in particular on climate change aspects. The quantitative analysis will cover in more detail the agricultural sector which is likely to be exposed to a larger extent than other sectors. The purpose of the study is to shed more light on the effect of this agreement on Austria. The Austrian parliamentary board on EU affairs decided to obstruct any steps towards freer trade with MERCOSUR countries. This study aims to explore the rationale of this decision and to explore further aspects that may not yet have been considered.

The European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) that covers greenhouse gas emissions from manufacturing and energy supply is a key instrument of the EU's climate policy. Since the start of the scheme in 2005, the credibility of the EU ETS has, however, been put into question due to a persistent oversupply of allowances (reflecting the regulators' uncertainty about firms' emission levels in the first trading period and a drop in emissions following the financial market and economic crisis in the second trading period). Numerous changes to the design of the EU ETS have been made in order to tackle this issue. The project SAFE aims at contributing to the research on the functioning and effectiveness of emissions trading schemes. It analyses whether the EU ETS despite a considerable surplus of allowances and low prices spurred abatement activities of the covered firms and whether firms have perceived changes in the incentives provided by the scheme over time. Moreover, it analyses how firms engaged in allowance trading and if their trading behaviour changed since the start of the EU ETS. To answer these questions, a case study for Austria is conducted in which an analysis of data on allocations, verified emissions and trading flows from the EUTL is combined with a survey among firms covered by the EU ETS.

Demographic developments taking place in all European countries lead to ageing societies and a decrease of the labour force and accordingly the labour share in total income. At the same time, the overall progressivity of European tax systems has been eroded over time. Against this background, options to secure the long-term sufficiency and sustainability of European tax systems need to be explored. The proposed project aims at modelling the future wealth distribution in five selected EU member countries to derive inheritances and gifts based on different demographic and wealth projection scenarios. On this basis, various inheritance and gift tax scenarios will be simulated to estimate potential inheritance and gift revenues for a projection period of 30 years.

The aim of this project is to design and set up a database of projects co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) during the multi-annual financial framework period 2014-2020. Therefore, information provided by managing authorities is systematically collected and standardised. Data on projects targeted at research and innovation related activities will be translated, enriched with thematic keywords and corresponding beneficiaries are matched with Horizon-2020 beneficiaries. Finally, a descriptive analysis of the resulting database will be provided together with an outline of possible research using this data.

Die demographischen Prognosen zeigen für die meisten europäischen Länder in den nächsten Jahrzehnten einen deutlichen Alterungsprozess, der den langfristigen Wachstumspfad der Volkswirtschaft beeinflusst. Tendenziell sinken das Wirtschaftswachstum und die Ersparnisbildung, wenn die Gruppe der 25- bis 54-Jährigen kleiner wird, zugleich erhöhte sich in diesem Fall die Inflationsrate langfristig. Wenn die Gruppe der 55- bis 64-Jährigen abnimmt, dreht sich der Leistungsbilanzsaldo von einem Überschuss in ein Defizit. Das Ziel dieser Studie ist eine Weiterentwicklung der Methode der Europäischen Kommission zur Berechnung des Trendoutputs, die den Zusammenhang zwischen Alterung und Produktivitätsentwicklung berücksichtigt. Weitere Reaktionen makroökonomischer Kenngrößen auf die Alterung werden mit Panelverfahren modelliert. Die Analyse wird für die größten EU-Mitgliedsländer, Japan, die USA und Österreich durchgeführt.

Rund 90% des durchschnittlichen Alterseinkommens in Österreich stammen aus dem öffentlichen Pensionssystem. Damit ist die Altersvorsorge sehr stark auf die erste Säule konzentriert. Die betriebliche Altersvorsorge wird in erster Linie von Pensionskassen und Versicherungsunternehmen getragen. Direktzusagen sind ein alternatives Instrument, dessen Nutzung seit Jahren stagniert. Die Möglichkeit für beitragsorientierte Pensionspläne in Pensionskassen und über Versicherungen hat die Verbreitung der betrieblichen Altersversorgung in Österreich gestärkt. Während betriebliche Formen der Altersvorsorge im Laufe der Zeit beliebter wurden, dämpften niedrige Zinssätze und die hohe Liquiditätspräferenz die Nachfrage nach individuellen Lebensversicherungsverträgen. In den Jahren 2002 bis 2018 war die Performance der Pensionskassen real und nach Abzug der Verwaltungskosten positiv. Die annualisierte Durchschnittsrendite lag bei 0,9% vor Steuern. Die Lebensversicherungsbranche verfolgt eine deutlich konservativere Anlagepolitik und erzielte eine durchschnittliche reale Nettorendite von 2,2% pro Jahr vor Steuern.

Bei der Volksabstimmung am 12. Juni 1994 sprachen sich zwei Drittel der Bevölkerung für einen EU-Beitritt Österreichs aus. Am 1. Jänner 1995 trat Österreich der EU bei. Ein maßgebliches Argument für den Beitritt war die damit einhergehende Integration in den europäischen Binnenmarkt verbunden mit der Erwartung positiver Effekte insbesondere für die österreichische Außenwirtschaft. 25 Jahre nach der Volksabstimmung werden die Handelseffekte und die damit einhergehenden BIP-, Beschäftigungs- und Preiseffekte der österreichischen EU-Mitgliedschaft empirisch quantifiziert.