Themenplattform "Ageing"

The gradual increase in the retirement age for women from 2024 to 2033 to 65 years should be associated with a longer period of employment for women. The recent past of transition is analysed along economic sectors. The aim here is to identify those sectors where there is already a gap between exit from the labour market and pensions entry. In these sectors, the upcoming raising of the age limit could pose a greater challenge.

IHS and WIFO have developed the long-term forecast and simulation model A-LMM (Austria Long-Run Macro Model). This study uses a new growth model based on an extended production function that takes into account the interaction of demographic factors with the development of technical progress. Thus growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP) reacts to changes in the expected age structure of the population. The model forecast will include macroeconomic variables, the development of the labour force, and other variables relevant for the forecast of the Old-Age Security Commission.

The WELTRANSIM project aims to explain the distributional effects induced by the ageing process and how welfare models contribute to mitigating such effects and securing wellbeing across the life cycle (from childhood to old age). Undoubtedly, population ageing changes the distribution of income, public resources and time use. In this respect, different welfare models induce different costs for actors and influence life course risks differently. We will contribute to investigating this issue by obtaining new data on intergenerational transfers, and by deriving innovative modelling tools. We will also employ macroeconometric techniques to test the interaction of economic, demographic and policy variables. In particular we will combine the National Time Transfer Accounts (NTA-NTTA) methodology with microsimulation analysis (both a static simulation tool – EUROMOD – and dynamic microsimulation) in order to investigate the extent to which the welfare state transfers, together with the ageing process, shift resources to the elderly. The proposal takes a comparative perspective based on the typologies of welfare models (Esping-Andersen, 1990). They serve as ideal-types or categories for comparing empirical variations (taxonomies) and testing empirical hypotheses. In this respect, the participating countries will act as typical cases of welfare state regimes – liberal, corporatist, social democratic – plus the subsequently added "familial or mediterranean" (Esping-Andersen, 1999).

The project develops a dynamic microsimulation model for the USA to project age-specific labour force participation while accounting for population changes in education and health. The model produces projections that account for changes in cohorts' educational attainments and the dynamic effects of education on health and employment. A focus is on the projection of the labour market participation of persons with health limitations in various policy settings. The analysis is embedded in an internationally comparative framework. Our project adapts a multi-country comparative microsimulation model, which is currently being developed for five European countries, for the USA context. The creation of this model, combined with the analysis of participation behaviour of different socio-demographic groups and of the impact of different policies for the inclusion of persons with health impairments, allows to project labour force participation in the USA and to construct comparative what-if scenarios.

The annual pension adjustment in Austria is based on the consumer price index. In other countries, other or several indicators are included in the calculation of the annual pension adjustment. This paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different adjustment systems and develops alternative adjustment indicators. In a further part, the burden of taxes and duties on pension households is analysed.

The project TRAPEZ follows the objective to improve the independent security of women in old age and to sustainably reduce the above-average Austrian gender gap in pensions.

With some 90 percent of the average retirement income received from a public pension entitlement, the Austrian system of old-age provision is very concentrated on the first pillar. Occupational pensions are primarily offered through pension funds and insurance companies. Direct commitments are an alternative vehicle, but their usage stagnates. The opportunity to offer defined contribution plans through pension funds and insurance contracts has certainly boosted the spread of occupational pensions in Austria. While occupational pensions have become more popular over time, low interest rates and high liquidity preference dampened demand for individual life insurance contracts. This study will collect data on the performance of pension funds and life insurance contracts in real terms.

Austria is currently cited in German social policy discussions as a role model in the field of old-age provision because of high income replacement ratios offered by public pension benefits. Austria has been able to assume this role primarily due to its high theoretical gross and net income replacement rates according to the OECD method. In the current OECD report, a ratio of 38.7 percent gross (51.9 percent net) to average life time income is shown for Germany; for Austria this ratio is 76.5 percent gross (89.9 percent net). This study intends to highlight the differences in benefit legislation in the two countries and thus provide an explanation for the deviating income replacement ratios.

Projections of demand trends for long-term care show marked increases in the coming decades. This will lead to a greater burden on public budgets. Today, municipalities bear around a quarter of the costs of long-term care services. The objectives of the study are to analyse the challenges of long-term care provision from the point of view of the municipalities and to present the problem areas on the basis of a survey of those responsible at municipal level in order to derive recommendations for action in the field of long-term care policy.

Das vorliegende Projekt untersucht als Weiterentwicklung des Projektes "Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing and Directed Technological Change" eine weitere zentrale Größe für die Abschätzung der ökonomischen Auswirkungen von Alterung näher, nämlich die künftige Entwicklung der Erwerbsbeteiligung im Lichte der Faktoren Bildung und Gesundheit. Dabei werden zum einen Ergebnisse der bisherigen Erwerbsquotenprojektionen den Ergebnissen alternativer Prognosemethoden gegenübergestellt, um eine differenziertere Einschätzung der Ergebnisse aus dem Vorgängerprojekt zu ermöglichen. Zum anderen soll in einer ländervergleichenden Perspektive der handlungspolitische Spielraum für die Gestaltung der künftigen Arbeitsmarktpartizipation, insbesondere der Überfünfzigjährigen, aufgezeigt werden.