Tourismusprognosen und "Facebook-Likes"


WIFO Research Seminar mit Ulrich Gunter (Modul Universität Wien)

Ulrich Gunter von der Modul Universität Wien sprach am 15. September 2020 im WIFO Research Seminar über die Nutzung von "Facebook-Likes" zur Tourismusprognose. WIFO-Ökonom Oliver Fritz steuerte einen Kommentar bei.

Die Folien zum Vortrag stehen hier zur Verfügung.

Weitere Informationen über Ulrich Gunter finden Sie hier.


WIFO Research Seminar, 15.9.2020 13:30
Commentary: Oliver Fritz (WIFO)
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Veranstalter: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Using data for the period 2010M06-2017M02, this study investigates the possibility of predicting total tourist arrivals to four Austrian cities (Graz, Innsbruck, Salzburg, and Vienna) from LIKES of posts on the Facebook pages of the destination management organisations of these cities. Google Trends data are also incorporated in investigating whether forecast models with LIKES and/or with Google Trends deliver more accurate forecasts. To capture the dynamics in the data, the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model class is employed. Taking into account the daily frequency of the original LIKES data, the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model class is employed as well. While time-series benchmarks from the naive, error-trend-seasonal, and autoregressive moving average model classes perform best for Graz and Innsbruck across forecast horizons and forecast accuracy measures, ADL models incorporating only LIKES or both LIKES and Google Trends generally outperform their competitors for Salzburg. For Vienna, the MIDAS model including both LIKES and Google Trends produces the smallest forecast accuracy measure values for most forecast horizons.
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Mag. Dr. Oliver Fritz

Forschungsbereiche: Strukturwandel und Regionalentwicklung
© Artem Beliaikin/Unsplash
© Artem Beliaikin/Unsplash