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WIFO publications: Martin Spielauer (10 hits)

Soziale Unterschiede, Lebenserwartung und Gesundheitsausgaben im Lebensverlauf (Social Differences, Life Expectancy and Health Expenditure Over the Life Course)
Monographs, November 2020, 40 pages
Commissioned by: Dachverband der Sozialversicherungsträger
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 22.11.2020 9:00
Diese Studie untersucht die sozialen Unterschiede in der Inanspruchnahme des Gesundheitssystems anhand einer Analyse der Gesundheitskosten unterschiedlicher Bildungsgruppen im Lebensverlauf. Dazu werden in einem ersten Schritt durchschnittliche Alterskostenprofile für Männer und Frauen nach höchster abgeschlossener Bildung ermittelt. In einem zweiten Schritt werden in einer dynamischen Mikrosimulation unter Berücksichtigung von Änderungen der Lebenserwartung und der Zusammensetzung der österreichischen Bevölkerung nach Alter und Bildung die Gesundheitskosten einzelner Kohorten und insgesamt geschätzt. Höhere Bildung geht, wie die Ergebnisse zeigen, in den meisten Lebensabschnitten im Durchschnitt mit besserer Gesundheit und niedrigeren Gesundheitskosten einher. Durch den positiven Zusammenhang zwischen Bildung und Lebenserwartung hat höhere Bildung aber auch einen gegenteiligen Kosteneffekt. Der Gesamteffekt weist für Männer und Frauen teils unterschiedliche Muster auf. Insgesamt hat die Verbesserung der Bildungsstruktur der Bevölkerung einen mäßig dämpfenden Effekt auf die Kostendynamik im Gesundheitssystem, der einen Teil des Kostenanstieges infolge der Zunahme der Lebenserwartung kompensiert.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (618), 21 pages
Online since: 12.11.2020 0:00
This paper studies the effect of population ageing on the inter- and intra-generational redistribution of income from a longitudinal perspective, comparing lifetime measures of income and transfers by generation, gender, education and family characteristics. For this end, we incorporate new disaggregated National Transfer Account (NTA) data and concepts of generational accounting into the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. This bottom-up modelling strategy makes it possible to project, for each generation and socio-demographic group, the net present value of expected transfers. microWELT delivers detailed sociodemographic projections consistent with Eurostat population projections but additionally providing the required detail concerning the changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics. Also, the model allows incorporating mechanisms to balance budgets over time in response to population ageing. Our study compares the results for Spain and Austria. We find significant differences in the role of private and public transfers related to parenthood. While in both countries parents privately transfer substantially more money to others, the Austrian welfare state fully compensates for these differences through public transfers to parents. Such compensation is not observed in Spain.
This paper examines return and onward migration of immigrants to Austria, taking into account immigration type, country of origin, and employment outcomes. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative records of the Austrian Social Security Database of immigrants who entered Austria between 2009 and 2017. It is the first such study for Austria. We find that about 25 percent of immigrants leave Austria within less than a year of their arrival and 50 percent within 5.5 years. Return and onward migration is closely correlated with immigration type and origin. Refugees have a very low likelihood to leave Austria, whereas labour migrants have a substantially higher one. Women are more likely to stay than men and immigrants from Turkey have the lowest return probabilities among all origin groups. Emigration is also closely correlated with labour market success, the likelihood to stay depending on the speed of labour market integration. The consequence of these patterns is that the composition of the stock of immigrants living in Austria differs from the structure of new immigrants entering the country. We apply dynamic microsimulation to project the size and structure of the first-generation immigrant population in Austria as well as its labour market integration up to 2060. Our simulation results suggest that eventually, over 90 percent of the resident immigrant population attains at least some labour market experience and that the differences in return and onward migration across immigrant groups work to shift the structure of the immigrant population in the direction of third-country nationals.
In this paper, we present the results of a dynamic microsimulation analysis that examines how changes in the educational integration of first- and second-generation immigrants would affect the future size of the Austrian labour force. Due to population ageing and migration, the number and proportion of people with a migration background will increase significantly in the coming decades. Differences in educational careers, as well as differences in labour market participation between the second generation of migrants with EU or EFTA backgrounds and people without a migration background, would have only a minor impact on future labour force participation dynamics. In contrast, closing education and labour force participation gaps for the second generation of migrants with a third country background would lead to a significant increase in the size and qualification structure of the working population.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (612), 19 pages
Online since: 15.10.2020 0:00
This paper studies how changes in the population composition by education and family characteristics impact on indicators of the economic effects of population ageing based on National Transfer Accounts (NTAs). NTAs constitute cross-sectional per-capita age-profiles of the key variables of national accounts consumption, income, saving, and public transfers, incorporating an estimation of private transfers. A variety of indicators based on NTA data combined with population projections was developed in the literature, of which we have selected two for our analysis: the Support Ratio (SR) and the Impact Index (IMP). We complement existing projections by using new disaggregated NTA data by education and family type, contrasting the results to the same indicators based on NTAs by age. Our projection analysis is performed using the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. The model provides the required detailed socio-demographic projections and incorporates the NTA accounting framework. Our results show that indicators based on disaggregated data can give a very distinct picture of the economic effects of population ageing, as the burden of ageing is alleviated by the education expansion. Our study compares results for Austria and Spain.
The aim of this paper is twofold: First, it provides an overview of the socio-demographic core modules of the dynamic microsimulation model microWELT. Second, it describes the essential socio-demographic characteristics of four European countries – Austria, Spain, Finland, and UK as representatives of four welfare state regimes (conservative, mediterranean, universalistic, and liberal) – and the processes that drive socio-demographic change which we aim at capturing with the model. MicroWELT is developed as a tool for the comparative study of the distributional effects of four welfare state regimes, represented by the four studied countries. Processes with potential links to welfare state types include 1. the intergenerational transmission of education, 2. childlessness and fertility by education, 3. partnership behaviours and lone parenthood, 4. age at leaving home, and 5. mortality differentials by sex and education. Through microWELT projections, we identify the impact of these processes on the future population composition by age, sex, education, and family characteristics of the studied countries. This paper is part of a series of related papers and other resources which together build comprehensive documentation and presentation of the research performed developing and using microWELT. All materials are available at the project website
This paper introduces the microWELT model. Starting from its objectives, we discuss design choices, the model architecture and key features. microWELT provides a demographic projection tool reproducing Eurostat population projections but adding details such as education, intergenerational transmission of education, fertility by education, partnership patterns, and mortality differentials by education. The model integrates transfer flows as captured by the National Transfer Account (NTA) and National Time Transfer Account (NTTA) accounting framework and calculates a set of indicators based on NTA literature. Individual accounts allow the study of transfers over the whole life cycle by cohorts and between generations.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (607), 18 pages
Online since: 08.09.2020 0:00
Dieses Papier beschreibt den Aufbau und die Funktionsweise des dynamischen Mikrosimulationsmodells microDEMS zur Analyse der ökonomischen Integration von Immigranten und Immigrantinnen in Österreich. Dynamische Mikrosimulation bezeichnet die Simulation einer Bevölkerung, repräsentiert durch eine große Zahl von Individuen, über die Zeit. Simuliert werden neben demographischen Charakteristika wie Alter, Geschlecht und Herkunft verschiedene Aspekte individueller Lebensläufe wie Bildungs- und Erwerbskarrieren. microDEMS (Demographic Change, Employment and Social Security) ist ein am WIFO entwickeltes modulares dynamisches Mikrosimulationsmodell, welches für einen breiten Einsatzbereich in der österreichischen Wirtschaftsforschung konzipiert ist. Der Schwerpunkt dieses Papiers liegt in der Beschreibung jener Module, welche speziell zur Analyse der ökonomischen Integration von Immigrantinnen und Immigranten entwickelt wurden. microDEMS unterstützt die Erstellung von Szenarien zur Immigration nach Herkunft und Typ. Der individuelle (und elterliche) Immigrationshintergrund beeinflusst zahlreiche modellierte Verhalten wie Ausbildungskarrieren, Arbeitsmarktbeteiligung und Emigration. Das Modell erlaubt die Analyse der langfristigen Effekte alternativer Szenarien der Bildungs- und Erwerbsintegration von Immigrantinnen und Immigranten auf die soziodemographische Struktur der in Österreich lebenden Bevölkerung.
microDEMS – Ein dynamisches Mikrosimulationsmodell für Österreich. Illustration am Beispiel der Entwicklung der Erwerbsbeteiligung bis 2040 (microDEMS – A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Austria. Illustration Using the Example of the Development of Labour Force Participation Until 2040)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2020, 93(1), pp.51-61
Online since: 27.01.2020 0:00
Das vom WIFO entwickelte dynamische Mikrosimulationsmodell microDEMS (Demographic Change, Employment and Social Security) bietet die Möglichkeit, individuelle Lebensverläufe über einen längerfristigen Zeitraum zu simulieren und damit langfristige Projektionen des Einflusses persönlicher, familiärer, soziodemographischer oder institutioneller Faktoren auf wirtschaftliche Kenngrößen, wie etwa die Erwerbsbeteiligung, zu erhalten. Der vorliegende Beitrag illustriert dies am Beispiel des Einflusses demographischer Veränderungen, der Bildungsexpansion und allgemeiner Trends auf die Entwicklung der Erwerbsbeteiligung bis 2040. Die Projektionen zeigen eine Zunahme der Zahl der Erwerbspersonen trotz eines Rückganges der Bevölkerung im erwerbsfähigen Alter. Diese Zunahme sollte im Wesentlichen durch den Anstieg der Erwerbsbeteiligung Älterer – auch im Gefolge der bisherigen Pensionsreformen – zustande kommen.
WIFO Working Papers, 2019, (578), 84 pages
Online since: 29.03.2019 0:00
The design of tax systems has a considerable impact on the distribution of income and wealth at the household and the individual level, and due to gender-differentiated socio-economic conditions also in a gender perspective. One of the most important areas of taxation is the taxation of personal incomes. Besides the level of income tax rates and the design of the income tax schedule (progressive versus flat tax schedule), the system of household taxation (joint versus individual taxation), the determination of taxable income and the design of tax exemptions (tax allowances versus credits), particularly child-related ones, are crucial determinants of the distributional effects and work incentives of the personal income tax. The study presents an overview of the microsimulation results for selected provisions of the personal income tax system on income distribution and work incentives. The microsimulations are based on EUROMOD for six selected EU countries: Germany, Austria, Spain, Czech Republic, UK, and Sweden, countries of different "families" of welfare and taxation traditions.

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