Weekly WIFO Economic Index

The Weekly WIFO Economic Index (WWWI) is a measure of the real economic activity of the Austrian economy on a weekly and monthly frequency. It is based on weekly, monthly and quarterly time series to estimate weekly and monthly indicators for real GDP and 18 GDP sub-aggregates (use side 8, production side 10) of the Quarterly National Accounts.

With the release for June 2022, the econometric models for the historical decompositions and for nowcasting have been converted to seasonally unadjusted time series. In addition, year-on-year growth rates are now used to estimate the models.

The WWWI estimates are (currently) updated monthly and published on WIFO's website.

 

Recent results

Publication 12 March 2024

Economic activity based on the weekly GDP indicator (WWWI) decreased by 1.7 percent compared to the previous year in February 2024 (calendar weeks 5 and 9, 29 January to 3 March).

WWWI for GDP and its subcomponents

According to the weekly GDP indicator (WWWI), Austrian economic output in February was 1¾ percent below the level of a year before (January –1¼ percent, revised)1.

The inflation-adjusted volume of non-cash transactions, as an indicator of household consumption, shows a slight increase in the demand for goods (retail sales) and a somewhat stronger increase in the demand for services in February compared to the previous year. Private consumption is estimated to have increased by 1½ percent year-on-year in February (January +¼ percent).

The development of gross fixed capital formation is determined by economic output (industrial production) and sentiment in the producing sector (according to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, business cycle survey). A decline of 4 percent compared to the previous year is estimated for February (January –2½ percent).

The number of trucks on Austria's motorways fell again in February compared to the same period last year, and the volume of rail freight transport stagnated. In contrast, the number of flights handled at Vienna Airport continued to rise. Although total imports stagnated overall, net exports have deteriorated noticeably since December, as total exports continued to shrink significantly. The estimated contribution of net exports in the broad sense to GDP growth was –1¼ percentage points in February (January –1¾ percentage points).

The weakness of freight transport is also reflected in the value added of the transport sector (NACE 2008, section H). At –2¼ percent in February, it remained below the level of the previous year (January –2½ percent).

In January, employment in the goods-producing sector (NACE 2008, sections A to E) was below the previous year's level for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis, and the number of unemployed has been rising year-on-year since April 2023, although it is still at a relatively low level in a long-term comparison. At the beginning of March, it was roughly at the same level as at the beginning of February 2020. The WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey) shows a renewed increase in pessimism among manufacturing firms, both in their assessment of the current situation and – even more so – in their expectations for the coming months. For February, WIFO expects value added in the goods producing sector to have fallen by 4¾ percent year-on-year (January –2½ percent)2.

According to the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (business cycle survey), the seasonally adjusted assessment of the current situation of companies in the construction sector (NACE 2008, section F) did not deteriorate further in February, while the expectations for the coming months again worsened. The number of persons registered as unemployed in the construction sector has been rising compared to a year earlier for more than a year, while employment has been falling for six months. Value added in construction is estimated to have fallen by 4¼ percent year-on-year in February (January –4 percent).

After stagnating in January, value added in tourism (accommodation and food services, NACE 2008, section I) is estimated to have been ½ percent higher in February than in the same month of the previous year, based on cashless transactions in hotels and restaurants, sentiment indicators from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest and online searches by foreign guests. In the distributive trades (NACE 2008, section G), value added remained ½ percent below the level of a year ago in February (January –1½ percent).

In other market services (NACE 2008, sections J to N), based on the indicators for the current situation and expectations from the WIFO-Konjunkturtest, the current employment situation and unfavourable developments in manufacturing, momentum is increasingly deteriorating: year-on-year growth in value added fell by ¾ percent in February (January –½ percent). In other personal services (NACE 2008, sections R to T), value added is estimated to have increased by 1½ percent year-on-year in February, based on price-adjusted non-cash payments in the event sector (January +1¾ percent).

 


1  The inclusion of newly published monthly and quarterly data, which have to be met when estimating the WWWI, has led to a revision of the WWWI for GDP: December 2023 +1½ percentage points, January 2024 +1¾ percentage points). On the production side, noteworthy upward revisions occurred in the goods producing sector (NACE 2008, sections A to E), construction (NACE 2008, section F) and trade (NACE 2008, section G) as well as to a lesser extent in the remaining market services (NACE 2008, sections J to N) and tourism (NACE 2008, section I).

2  With the publication of the preliminary production indices for industry and construction for January 2024 by Statistics Austria on 8 March 2024, the previous December figures for industry and in particular construction were revised significantly upwards. Despite the upward revision this month, both sectors remained in recession.

 

 

The WWWI is under constant development; it is regularly reviewed and will be expanded with new and additional weekly data series as they become available. The WWWI is not an official quarterly estimate, forecast or similar of WIFO.
 

 

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