Conferences, workshops and lectures

Entspricht die Einschätzung der Bevölkerung zur vergangenen und prognostizierten Entwicklung des österreichischen Alterssicherungssystems der Faktenlage? Zum Auftakt des Gallup-WIFO-Meinungschecks widmen sich WIFO-Leiter Christoph Badelt, Gallup-COO Andrea Fronaschütz, WIFO-Pensionsexpertin Christine Mayrhuber und WIFO-Prognoseverantwortlicher Stefan Schiman im Rahmen einer Pressekonferenz am 20. Februar 2020 um 10:00 Uhr im Presseclub Concordia (Bankgasse 8, 1010 Wien) dem Thema Pensionen. Mit dem Gallup-WIFO-Meinungscheck starten das Österreichische Gallup Institut und das Österreichische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (WIFO) eine Initiative, um den oftmals emotional und ideologisch erhitzten Diskurs in unserer Gesellschaft zu versachlichen. Bei der gemeinsamen Untersuchungsreihe wird die Meinung der Bevölkerung zu volkswirtschaftlichen Themen erhoben und evidenzbasierten Informationen gegenübergestellt.

Using data for the period 2010M06-2017M02, this study investigates the possibility of predicting total tourist arrivals to four Austrian cities (Graz, Innsbruck, Salzburg, and Vienna) from LIKES of posts on the Facebook pages of the destination management organizations of these cities. Google Trends data are also incorporated in investigating whether forecast models with LIKES and/or with Google Trends deliver more accurate forecasts. To capture the dynamics in the data, the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model class is employed. Taking into account the daily frequency of the original LIKES data, the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model class is employed as well. While time-series benchmarks from the naive, error-trend-seasonal, and autoregressive moving average model classes perform best for Graz and Innsbruck across forecast horizons and forecast accuracy measures, ADL models incorporating only LIKES or both LIKES and Google Trends generally outperform their competitors for Salzburg. For Vienna, the MIDAS model including both LIKES and Google Trends produces the smallest forecast accuracy measure values for most forecast horizons.

The Euroframe group of research institutes (CASE, CPB, DIW, ESRI, ETLA, IfW, NIESR, OFCE, PROMETEIA, WIFO) will hold its 17th annual Conference on Economic Policy Issues in the European Union in London on 5 June 2020. The aim of this conference is to bring together academics and policy-oriented economists by providing a forum for debate on economic policy issues relevant in the European context. The 17th Conference will focus on the challenges posed by climate change. Public opinion has changed and European policy-makers, businesses and the financial sector have started to recognise the importance of climate change and biodiversity on the lives of people and the economy. Climate action must stand at the core of long-term growth and infrastructure planning. How do policy-makers ensure that the costs and benefits of climate action are shared equitably at a time when multilateral frameworks have come under threat?