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WIFO Bulletin, 2018, 23(6), pp.45-54
Online since: 04.07.2018 0:00
Following the financial and economic crisis leading to the recession of 2008-09, and the sluggish economic activity between 2012 and 2015 (+0.7 percent p.a.), economic growth gained sustained momentum from mid-2016. For 2017 and 2018, WIFO expects annual GDP growth of 2.9 and 3.2 percent, respectively. An average annual increase of 2.1 percent is expected for the forecast period 2018 to 2022, up from a modest +1.3 percent p.a. recorded for 2013 to 2017. The expected rate would thereby exceed the euro area average by ¼ percentage point. The favourable external business environment will stimulate export growth (+4.1 percent p.a.) and encourage investment in new machinery and equipment. Rising disposable household income will allow private consumption to gain 1½ percent per year, after +0.7 percent p.a. in the previous five-year period. Buoyant growth in 2018 and 2019 will stimulate job creation beyond the increase in the labour force and lead to lower unemployment. However, from 2020 onwards, labour supply may again grow in excess of demand, with the unemployment rate edging up from 7.3 percent in 2019 to 7.6 percent in 2022. Inflation remains moderate over the medium term, and the inflation differential vis-à-vis the euro area average should narrow. The Consumer Price Index is expected to increase at an average 1.9 percent per year. Under our assumptions for future business conditions and policy settings, the general government account may reach balance as from the middle of the forecast period, both in headline (Maastricht) and structural terms. As a result, the ratio of government debt to nominal GDP would fall to around 63 percent by 2022, down by 20 percentage points from 2016.
WIFO Economic Outlook (German version), June 2018, 33 pages
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 29.06.2018 10:30
Nach einem hohen Wachstum im Vorjahr dürfte die österreichische Wirtschaft 2018 mit +3,2% ähnlich kräftig expandieren. Die Vorlaufindikatoren weisen jedoch auf eine zunehmende Abflachung der Dynamik hin. 2019 wird das BIP spürbar schwächer wachsen (+2,2%). Erhöhte Unsicherheiten über die wirtschaftspolitischen Rahmenbedingungen im Ausland verstärken die Abwärtsrisiken gegenüber der Prognose vom März 2018.
WIFO Business Cycle Survey, June 2018, 12 pages
Supported by: European Commission
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 28.06.2018 14:00
Die Unsicherheit der letzten Monate im Außenhandel hat bisher kaum Auswirkungen auf die Konjunktureinschätzung durch die österreichischen Unternehmen. Die Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests im Juni 2018 zeigen im Großen und Ganzen eine Seitwärtsbewegung. Die Beurteilung der aktuellen Lage verschlechterte sich etwas, die Konjunkturerwartungen bleiben zuversichtlich. Der Index der aktuellen Lagebeurteilungen für die Gesamtwirtschaft lag im Juni saisonbereinigt mit 21,7 Punkten um 1,7 Punkte unter dem Wert des Vormonats.
Austria is on a track of economic expansion with solid growth in 2017 (GDP +2.9 percent). Strong foreign trade and high business confidence were driving industrial investments. Labour markets are improving – having a positive impact on private consumption which additionally supports the economic development. Therefore, the outlook for 2018 is more optimistic than previously anticipated. The construction business benefits from this economic framework. All construction segments are currently exhibiting growth, with the strongest increases in non-residential construction and civil engineering. The residential construction market in Austria is in the midst of an expansion phase where dynamics are expected to slow down towards 2020.
The latest construction market forecasts presented at the 85th Euroconstruct conference, hosted by Forecon in Finland on 7-8 June 2018 confirmed the current peak in construction growth in 2017. Over the period 2018 to 2020 the European construction market will continue to grow, albeit at decreasing rates. The Eastern European countries exhibit the most promising growth path, especially Poland and Hungary. Regarding Western Europe, the outlook is brightest for Spain and France. Despite the generally positive development, a number of countries will face a decline in total output in 2019 and 2020. Among the Nordic countries, construction output is expected to shrink in Sweden and Finland. Also in Germany, after years of continued construction growth, a lower output is likely in the coming years. The Euroconstruct Country Report provides more detailed information on the construction market trends and its fundamentals in each of the 19 Euroconstruct member countries until 2020. The forecasts and analyses are presented on the country level and are based on a comparable harmonised dataset for the major construction sectors and indicators. The macroeconomic framework conditions are included additionally. – With contributions by Julia Bachtrögler, Anders Bjerre, Paul Donadieu, Ludwig Dorffmeister, Antonio Coimbra, Josep Ramon Fontana, Anne Kathrin Funk, Anna Gáspár, Neil Gibson, Paul Groot, James Hastings, Bengt Henricson, Annette Hughes, Matijas Kocijan, Nathalie Kouassi, Michael Klien, Vladimir Lenko, Jean-Pierre Liebaert, Nejra Macic, Dana Maléřová, Renaud Muller, Jan Müller, Valentin Niçaise, Markku Riihimäki, Radislav Semenov, Mariusz Sochacki, Antonella Stemperini, Michael Weingärtler, Youssef Yacoubi.

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