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There is a vast amount of empirical evidence concerning the cointegrating relationship between money demand, some kind of interest rate and income. In contrast to this, short-run dynamics are still opaque. In the existing literature, the return to steady state is modelled quite differently. The range goes from simple error correction models to non-linear approaches. Here a method is proposed for considering not only disequilibria between money demand and its steady state of only the last period but also those of the recent past in a parsimonious and economically meaningful way. Different to multicointegration, weights for cumulating steady-state deviations are geometrically decreasing the more they are located in the past. This model possesses an ARMA (1,1) representation and leads to an ARMAX model if combined with a conventional error correction model. This approach is shown to track money demand short-run dynamics better and more parsimoniously than partial-adjustment models.
Die Stimmen unter Ökonominnen und Ökonomen mehren sich, die meinen, dass Österreichs Wirtschaft massive Strukturprobleme habe, die das Wachstum dauerhaft schmälern. Dieser Beitrag weist darauf hin, dass es sich hierbei vielfach um Sonderfaktoren handelt, die fälschlicherweise als Strukturprobleme interpretiert wurden.
Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 2013, (2), S.313-326
Forschungsergebnisse der Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien, 2008, (25), 207 Seiten
Online seit: 10.11.2015 10:30